Notes on Fertility Rate:
When analyzing world population growth, we are often drawn to solving overpopulation and quickly jump to extreme measures in order to prevent it. Equally important, however, is the retention of a stable and healthy birth rate. In nearly 48% of countries, notably in East Asia and Western Europe, citizens live below the recommended fertility rate in order to maintain a healthy population. In these cases--population growth could dip too low.
Throughout this project, many of these concerns can be applied to Romania and Spain. In fact, in 2015, Romania's birth rate reached a low at 1.52 births per woman, significantly down since the high spike in birth rate during the second half of the 20th century. Although this dip in birth rate acknowledged to be a normalization to dictator Ceausescu's population program with artificially high birth rates of the 1980's, (3.66 births per woman), Romania's population continues to decrease at a concerning rate.
Even more extreme is Spain's birth rate, which fell at 1.32 births per woman in 2015. Spain's population has remained relatively constant, but mainly because of significant immigration into the country. With political issues like the secession of Catalonia threatening the integrity of the state, Spain could witness a significant decrease in immigrants and citizens with a Catalonian secession. As acknowledged by Pablo, Jaime, and Maria, the main demographic issues associated with a split could be a loss in population and a downturn in the economy. Since the natural birth population is decreasing, economic issues could be exacerbated if there are not enough working-age people to take jobs lost from Catalonia.
Ultimately, the goal to sustain a healthy human population and to solve overpopulation is to keep fertility rate at 2.1 births per woman. In the world of demography, this is known as the “magic number,” or “replacement fertility level (RFL).” RFL represents the number of births needed to create zero population growth but to replace the population of the previous generation. A second number, known as the “total fertility rate (TFR)” can model birth rate. Total fertility rate represents the average number of children a woman will have, assuming the woman had children between certain intervals and lived through her childbearing years. In theory, when the total fertility rate equals the replacement fertility rate, population will be stable. Countries like China have notoriously thrown off this RFL balance, as seen in the controversial one child policy noted above. Since male children were valued more in Chinese society, China’s RFL was upwards of 2.4, causing an unbalanced and unstable working generations that has obvious ramifications today.
Sources:
Throughout this project, many of these concerns can be applied to Romania and Spain. In fact, in 2015, Romania's birth rate reached a low at 1.52 births per woman, significantly down since the high spike in birth rate during the second half of the 20th century. Although this dip in birth rate acknowledged to be a normalization to dictator Ceausescu's population program with artificially high birth rates of the 1980's, (3.66 births per woman), Romania's population continues to decrease at a concerning rate.
Even more extreme is Spain's birth rate, which fell at 1.32 births per woman in 2015. Spain's population has remained relatively constant, but mainly because of significant immigration into the country. With political issues like the secession of Catalonia threatening the integrity of the state, Spain could witness a significant decrease in immigrants and citizens with a Catalonian secession. As acknowledged by Pablo, Jaime, and Maria, the main demographic issues associated with a split could be a loss in population and a downturn in the economy. Since the natural birth population is decreasing, economic issues could be exacerbated if there are not enough working-age people to take jobs lost from Catalonia.
Ultimately, the goal to sustain a healthy human population and to solve overpopulation is to keep fertility rate at 2.1 births per woman. In the world of demography, this is known as the “magic number,” or “replacement fertility level (RFL).” RFL represents the number of births needed to create zero population growth but to replace the population of the previous generation. A second number, known as the “total fertility rate (TFR)” can model birth rate. Total fertility rate represents the average number of children a woman will have, assuming the woman had children between certain intervals and lived through her childbearing years. In theory, when the total fertility rate equals the replacement fertility rate, population will be stable. Countries like China have notoriously thrown off this RFL balance, as seen in the controversial one child policy noted above. Since male children were valued more in Chinese society, China’s RFL was upwards of 2.4, causing an unbalanced and unstable working generations that has obvious ramifications today.
Sources:
Solutions and Challenges of a Sustainable RFL
Perhaps the broadest construct of society is that women should be mothers and take care of domestic duties. However, in order to maintain a stable RFL, women must be given opportunities to reconcile work and family. One of the largest proposed solutions to abnormally low birth rates is the introduction of paid maternity leave. For instance, France struggled with similar issues with birth rate as Romania and Spain, but since 2002, has supported a pro-natalist program. This program offered paid maternity leave through the national health care system, which resulted in the rise of birth rate from 1.74 to 2.08 births per woman, nearly the "magic number."
However, in the broader scheme of things, implementing a paid maternity leave program or creating other regulations to increase birth rate is simply not feasible. For example, in Catholic and Islamic societies, including Italy and Saudi Arabia, it is not in the government's religious right to impose regulations on childbirth or to encourage more sexual activity. In fact, encouraging sexual activity or discussing birth control and family planning can challenge core values of these religions. Although countries with completely secular governments and developed centralized government can readily take on these programs, many countries still struggle to balance their religious values with concerns over population growth.
Furthermore, in a new age of technology and competition, people are increasingly becoming interested in financial and material success rather than relationships and reproduction. In countries such as Japan, the birth rate is down to 1.46 births per woman, which is largely attributed to a decrease of millennial interest in sex and relationships, and a greater focus on employment. By 2050, four in ten people in Japan could be over the age of 60. Even though Japan has made the news the most often for this trend, similar trends exist in other countries. For example, both Singapore and South Korea have a birth rate of 1.24 births per woman, for similar reasons. However, South Korea represents a greater focus on internet games and forums, which take up much of the day for young Korean men and women. Compulsory military service in South Korea also disrupts birth rate. Since all Korean men aged 18-35 have to have served in the military in some capacity, men are often too preoccupied to form serious relationships or settle down for children. These trends are unlikely to shift as a result of a competitive technological world, and the exacerbation of tensions between North and South Korea, solidifying the policy of compulsory military service.
Sources:
However, in the broader scheme of things, implementing a paid maternity leave program or creating other regulations to increase birth rate is simply not feasible. For example, in Catholic and Islamic societies, including Italy and Saudi Arabia, it is not in the government's religious right to impose regulations on childbirth or to encourage more sexual activity. In fact, encouraging sexual activity or discussing birth control and family planning can challenge core values of these religions. Although countries with completely secular governments and developed centralized government can readily take on these programs, many countries still struggle to balance their religious values with concerns over population growth.
Furthermore, in a new age of technology and competition, people are increasingly becoming interested in financial and material success rather than relationships and reproduction. In countries such as Japan, the birth rate is down to 1.46 births per woman, which is largely attributed to a decrease of millennial interest in sex and relationships, and a greater focus on employment. By 2050, four in ten people in Japan could be over the age of 60. Even though Japan has made the news the most often for this trend, similar trends exist in other countries. For example, both Singapore and South Korea have a birth rate of 1.24 births per woman, for similar reasons. However, South Korea represents a greater focus on internet games and forums, which take up much of the day for young Korean men and women. Compulsory military service in South Korea also disrupts birth rate. Since all Korean men aged 18-35 have to have served in the military in some capacity, men are often too preoccupied to form serious relationships or settle down for children. These trends are unlikely to shift as a result of a competitive technological world, and the exacerbation of tensions between North and South Korea, solidifying the policy of compulsory military service.
Sources:
The Effects of Poverty and Education
In all societies, birth rate is affected by various forms of social stratification. This stratification exists both between women and men in education and rights, and between classes. Although it can be easy to overlook the effects education and poverty on birth rate in our community, birth rates around the world are constantly shaped by modern education and a declining poverty rates.
In almost all societies, poverty is associated with high fertility rate. Surprisingly, a high fertility rate is prevalent at higher poverty levels, since more children are needed in order to compensate for the high death rate associated with children living in poverty. Moreover, people in poverty are less likely to have steady access to contraception and family-planning services. As seen in the graph provided below, there is a strong negative correlation between fertility rate and per capita income.
However, in last 20 years, poverty rates have significantly declined in developing countries, most notably in Guatemala, Cambodia, and Namibia, resulting in a decrease in family size by roughly 50% in those countries. Along with declining poverty rates, this decrease in family size is also associated with better family planning programs and decreased child mortality rates.
In almost all societies, poverty is associated with high fertility rate. Surprisingly, a high fertility rate is prevalent at higher poverty levels, since more children are needed in order to compensate for the high death rate associated with children living in poverty. Moreover, people in poverty are less likely to have steady access to contraception and family-planning services. As seen in the graph provided below, there is a strong negative correlation between fertility rate and per capita income.
However, in last 20 years, poverty rates have significantly declined in developing countries, most notably in Guatemala, Cambodia, and Namibia, resulting in a decrease in family size by roughly 50% in those countries. Along with declining poverty rates, this decrease in family size is also associated with better family planning programs and decreased child mortality rates.
Similarly, along with poverty, education for women contributes heavily to birth rate. In many of the same countries that struggle with rampant poverty, women are pulled out of school at an early age. As a result, young women move more quickly into marriage without sufficient knowledge about family planning or birth control.
All around the world, women are predominantly subjected to the role of the "mother" in the household. By decreasing the amount of education that a woman receives, the chance the woman will pursue a field of her own decreases drastically. Consequently, the education of a woman can help draw conclusions about her fertility. The vast majority of highly educated women tend to have smaller families compared to women without a comprehensive education. If women are pursuing their own careers or getting married at a later age, there is a lower chance that the woman will be subjected to the home. Generally, higher levels of education are generally associated with higher social status and wealth, which tends to result in smaller families. As seen in the UNESCO graph below, as secondary schooling increases, women tend to have less children. This is a strong negative correlation, with about a 71% fit between the line of best fit and the data.
Despite this linkage, a variety of factors can simultaneously limit the amount of education a woman receives, and increase birth rate. For example, as seen above, poverty is directly related to a higher birth rate. In areas with rampant poverty, the education system tends to be less developed and women are often pulled out of school earlier in order to support their families in small businesses or in the home. In countries like China and India, the dowry system continues to be a source of hope for many families to elevate their social status through their children. When daughters are married off earlier, fiscal connections are made, resulting in an incentive to pull female children out of school early for marriage. In Sub-Saharan Africa as well, this trend is experienced to an exacerbated degree. 12% of women in Sub-Saharan Africa are married off before the age of 15, which increase the amount of children the average woman has. Furthermore, younger girls can serve as a longer child-bearing widow.
Sources:
All around the world, women are predominantly subjected to the role of the "mother" in the household. By decreasing the amount of education that a woman receives, the chance the woman will pursue a field of her own decreases drastically. Consequently, the education of a woman can help draw conclusions about her fertility. The vast majority of highly educated women tend to have smaller families compared to women without a comprehensive education. If women are pursuing their own careers or getting married at a later age, there is a lower chance that the woman will be subjected to the home. Generally, higher levels of education are generally associated with higher social status and wealth, which tends to result in smaller families. As seen in the UNESCO graph below, as secondary schooling increases, women tend to have less children. This is a strong negative correlation, with about a 71% fit between the line of best fit and the data.
Despite this linkage, a variety of factors can simultaneously limit the amount of education a woman receives, and increase birth rate. For example, as seen above, poverty is directly related to a higher birth rate. In areas with rampant poverty, the education system tends to be less developed and women are often pulled out of school earlier in order to support their families in small businesses or in the home. In countries like China and India, the dowry system continues to be a source of hope for many families to elevate their social status through their children. When daughters are married off earlier, fiscal connections are made, resulting in an incentive to pull female children out of school early for marriage. In Sub-Saharan Africa as well, this trend is experienced to an exacerbated degree. 12% of women in Sub-Saharan Africa are married off before the age of 15, which increase the amount of children the average woman has. Furthermore, younger girls can serve as a longer child-bearing widow.
Sources:
Effects of Alcohol and Drug Abuse Globally on Mothers and Children
Globally, alcohol and drug abuse are equally as rampant as they are debilitating for sectors of populations. Unfortunately, the largest problems that emerge from alcohol and drug abuse are prenatal and postpartum substance abuse, which can have significant ramifications on the overall health of a newborn child.
Although prenatal substance abuse occurs in only a fraction of all pregnancies, it is a serious and prevalent problem around the world today. In fact, women are most susceptible to alcohol and drug abuse from the ages of 18-44, and more so between the ages of 18-29. Consequently, drugs and alcohol are most likely to be abused by women during their prime childbearing years. In the United States alone, an estimated one million children have been exposed to tobacco while in the womb. More concerning, however, are the rising number of cases of prenatal opiate use, which made a five-fold increase between 2000 and 2009.
In developing countries, statistics are more scarce but equally as disturbing. As mentioned above, developing countries with higher rates of poverty tend to have an overall higher birth rate. As a result, the effects of prenatal and postpartum substance abuse are exacerbated, since more children on average can be exposed to illegal drugs. In the poorest areas of South Africa, for example, prenatal alcohol abuse occurs 19.6% of the time, compared to 8.5% in the United States. Since the effects of apartheid continue to linger in South Africa, many of the poorest black communities receive little attention and education about family planning, drug use, and pregnancy. This greatly attributes to this discrepancy in alcohol abuse.
Moreover, women in developing countries are more likely to continue to abuse drugs and alcohol after giving birth. Although 96% of women globally tend to achieve abstinence from alcohol during pregnancy, there was a 51% relapse rate postpartum. This 51% is dominated by women living in poverty or in developing countries, due to the stressors of raising a child. Along with significant dedication needed to raise a child, developing countries typically have worse drug rehabilitation programs and less health education.
Drug and alcohol abuse have a variety of lifelong impacts on a newborn child. For one, drinking can increase the likelihood of miscarriage, and can affect the child’s cognitive and behavioral development. Smoking tobacco and cannabis can significantly affect a child’s health as well, potentially leading to stunted growth and development and higher rates of mortality.
In the grand scheme of things, substance abuse is a minutiae of the possible influences on fertility rate and population globally. However, prenatal and postpartum drug abuse have significant lifelong impacts on young children, which will eventually lead to hundreds of thousands of people living with preventable disabilities. When analyzing education and poverty, it is necessary to realize that drug abuse can arise from similar conditions, and affect significant percentages of generations.
Sources:
Although prenatal substance abuse occurs in only a fraction of all pregnancies, it is a serious and prevalent problem around the world today. In fact, women are most susceptible to alcohol and drug abuse from the ages of 18-44, and more so between the ages of 18-29. Consequently, drugs and alcohol are most likely to be abused by women during their prime childbearing years. In the United States alone, an estimated one million children have been exposed to tobacco while in the womb. More concerning, however, are the rising number of cases of prenatal opiate use, which made a five-fold increase between 2000 and 2009.
In developing countries, statistics are more scarce but equally as disturbing. As mentioned above, developing countries with higher rates of poverty tend to have an overall higher birth rate. As a result, the effects of prenatal and postpartum substance abuse are exacerbated, since more children on average can be exposed to illegal drugs. In the poorest areas of South Africa, for example, prenatal alcohol abuse occurs 19.6% of the time, compared to 8.5% in the United States. Since the effects of apartheid continue to linger in South Africa, many of the poorest black communities receive little attention and education about family planning, drug use, and pregnancy. This greatly attributes to this discrepancy in alcohol abuse.
Moreover, women in developing countries are more likely to continue to abuse drugs and alcohol after giving birth. Although 96% of women globally tend to achieve abstinence from alcohol during pregnancy, there was a 51% relapse rate postpartum. This 51% is dominated by women living in poverty or in developing countries, due to the stressors of raising a child. Along with significant dedication needed to raise a child, developing countries typically have worse drug rehabilitation programs and less health education.
Drug and alcohol abuse have a variety of lifelong impacts on a newborn child. For one, drinking can increase the likelihood of miscarriage, and can affect the child’s cognitive and behavioral development. Smoking tobacco and cannabis can significantly affect a child’s health as well, potentially leading to stunted growth and development and higher rates of mortality.
In the grand scheme of things, substance abuse is a minutiae of the possible influences on fertility rate and population globally. However, prenatal and postpartum drug abuse have significant lifelong impacts on young children, which will eventually lead to hundreds of thousands of people living with preventable disabilities. When analyzing education and poverty, it is necessary to realize that drug abuse can arise from similar conditions, and affect significant percentages of generations.
Sources: