World Population Models:
We created an exponential and logistic regression by using data found on the worldometers.info website of the world population by year. The data that tracks the population starting at 1951 and using the data found every five years from 1955 until 2015.
We arrived at an estimated carrying capacity of 10 billion people by comparing the widely accepted carrying capacity in the scientific community with the logistic regression that we calculated using published data. This figure was supported by our regression, as the upper horizontal asymptote of the graph was at 12.09 billion, which would leave the carrying capacity slightly lower, at around 10 billion people.
We arrived at an estimated carrying capacity of 10 billion people by comparing the widely accepted carrying capacity in the scientific community with the logistic regression that we calculated using published data. This figure was supported by our regression, as the upper horizontal asymptote of the graph was at 12.09 billion, which would leave the carrying capacity slightly lower, at around 10 billion people.
Our group decided that the logistic model was a better representation of our current world population because not only did our logistic model have a higher r squared (.991) than our exponential model (there was less variability between our data points and the regression), but also the rate of increase for the exponential model will continue to get higher which does not seem realistic. Even though technology will continue to advance, we believe that it will not be able to withstand the depletion in resources and food supply. Consequently, our logistic model demonstrates that our population will continue to increase at a fast rate for a couple of decades and eventually slow down drastically.
Based on our logistic model, we predict that our population will reach the world’s carrying capacity 104.045 years after 1950, which is approximately in the year of 2054.
Based on our logistic model, we predict that our population will reach the world’s carrying capacity 104.045 years after 1950, which is approximately in the year of 2054.
Sources:
Live Science Carrying Capacity Information: Link
Carrying Capacity Estimate Paper: Link
World Population Data for Models: Link
Live Science Carrying Capacity Information: Link
Carrying Capacity Estimate Paper: Link
World Population Data for Models: Link
Carbon Dioxide Consumption:
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This chart above shows the consumption of CO2 in metric tons per capita
** The most populated country starts from the left (China) and the least populated is on the right (Egypt)
Mt. = metric tons
CO2 in metric tons for the 15 most populated countries in 2013
As this chart shows, carbon dioxide consumption is not just based off of population. An individual’s average carbon dioxide consumption in different countries varies a significant amount. The carbon dioxide consumption worldwide for 2013 was 35.986 billion Mt. Between the US, Russia, and Japan the carbon dioxide consumption was 8.415 billion Mt. This shows how a huge percentage of the worldwide carbon dioxide consumption can be the result of just 3 countries out of the 35.986 billion Mt, which is 23.4% of the carbon dioxide consumption of the total worldwide . However, the percentage of these countries’ populations compared to the world population is much lower. The combined populations of these three countries in 2013 was 585,958,465 which is merely 8.12% of the total world population. These differences are huge as 8.12% is only about a third of 23.4%. Why should the world reduce carbon dioxide consumption?
There are a plethora of issues that are associated with carbon dioxide consumption being too high. One of the biggest of these issues is global warming. In the past century global warming has increased significantly, and many believe that it may be a result of the greenhouse effect. This is the idea that as carbon dioxide is released, it rises up to the atmosphere. At that point it settles in with the other gases and forms a thicker layer. This then traps heat rising off the earth in the same way the roof traps heat in a greenhouse. This additional warming to the Earth has many consequences involving ice melting at the poles and waters rising around the globe. Another issue with the change in atmosphere is that storms are increasingly more likely. As people have seen, there have definitely been plenty of storms lately. How can the problem of carbon dioxide emissions be solved? As seen in 2013 the consumption of carbon dioxide was 35.986 billion Mt, and the world population was 7,213,426,452. With the estimated carrying capacity being around 10 billion people, and that the world consumption doesn’t change until then, the total consumption of carbon dioxide would be estimated to be around 49.888 billion Mt worldwide. This is an extreme amount and so there needs to be changes in how carbon dioxide is used to prevent potential major climate changes. Just having some of the major countries like the US, Russia, and Japan reduce carbon dioxide consumption could make a major impact. Although a country like China produces the most carbon dioxide emissions of any country, its average per capita is much lower than the US, Russia, or Japan. A good step in the right direction would be trying to limit the carbon dioxide emissions for each country to below 4 Mt per capita which would slow down the total consumption significantly. Hopefully, in the future we will be able to reduce carbon dioxide emissions down to a point where it is balanced out by plants using it and other forms of reducing it.
Sources:
Carbon Dioxide Consumption of Countries: Link
(You will need to search countries individually and find CO2 emission from the energy tab)
There are a plethora of issues that are associated with carbon dioxide consumption being too high. One of the biggest of these issues is global warming. In the past century global warming has increased significantly, and many believe that it may be a result of the greenhouse effect. This is the idea that as carbon dioxide is released, it rises up to the atmosphere. At that point it settles in with the other gases and forms a thicker layer. This then traps heat rising off the earth in the same way the roof traps heat in a greenhouse. This additional warming to the Earth has many consequences involving ice melting at the poles and waters rising around the globe. Another issue with the change in atmosphere is that storms are increasingly more likely. As people have seen, there have definitely been plenty of storms lately. How can the problem of carbon dioxide emissions be solved? As seen in 2013 the consumption of carbon dioxide was 35.986 billion Mt, and the world population was 7,213,426,452. With the estimated carrying capacity being around 10 billion people, and that the world consumption doesn’t change until then, the total consumption of carbon dioxide would be estimated to be around 49.888 billion Mt worldwide. This is an extreme amount and so there needs to be changes in how carbon dioxide is used to prevent potential major climate changes. Just having some of the major countries like the US, Russia, and Japan reduce carbon dioxide consumption could make a major impact. Although a country like China produces the most carbon dioxide emissions of any country, its average per capita is much lower than the US, Russia, or Japan. A good step in the right direction would be trying to limit the carbon dioxide emissions for each country to below 4 Mt per capita which would slow down the total consumption significantly. Hopefully, in the future we will be able to reduce carbon dioxide emissions down to a point where it is balanced out by plants using it and other forms of reducing it.
Sources:
Carbon Dioxide Consumption of Countries: Link
(You will need to search countries individually and find CO2 emission from the energy tab)