Misha Kouznetsov
Christina Bong
Pamela Verret
REPORT ON THE GLOBAL POPULATION
The purpose behind this lab was to investigate the human population, the rate that it is growing at, and to model the human population growth roughly over the last century. Additionally, our group explored issues and potential solutions with population growth along with cultural conflicts and different perspectives of population growth.
Data
To create a model of population growth, our group gathered the data from the United States census bureau in the past century for every ten years. Afterwards, we found an exponential and a logarithmic function to model our data. The reason for using two models is because they offer different perspectives on population growth. The exponential model clearly demonstrates the behavior of the growth over the past century while the logistic model shows the predicted carrying capacity for the world population which is based on the data. The equations and their respective graphs are as follows:
Exponential Equation and Graph:
Note: In both cases the x axis represents years since 1900 and the y axis represents the population in billions
Christina Bong
Pamela Verret
REPORT ON THE GLOBAL POPULATION
The purpose behind this lab was to investigate the human population, the rate that it is growing at, and to model the human population growth roughly over the last century. Additionally, our group explored issues and potential solutions with population growth along with cultural conflicts and different perspectives of population growth.
Data
To create a model of population growth, our group gathered the data from the United States census bureau in the past century for every ten years. Afterwards, we found an exponential and a logarithmic function to model our data. The reason for using two models is because they offer different perspectives on population growth. The exponential model clearly demonstrates the behavior of the growth over the past century while the logistic model shows the predicted carrying capacity for the world population which is based on the data. The equations and their respective graphs are as follows:
Exponential Equation and Graph:
Note: In both cases the x axis represents years since 1900 and the y axis represents the population in billions
Logistic Equation and Graph
Analysis
Both equations and graphs were based on world populations by decade from 1900 until 2010 and then 2016 as well, however the logistic function has added predicted values for the years 2020, 30, 40 and 50 based on the established trend. The exponential function and graph enable the prediction of the year in which the world will reach the estimated carrying capacity; and the logistic function aiding in the prediction for the world's carrying capacity based on previous decades. The estimated carrying capacity is based on comparing various sources and as well as looking at the logistic function's k-value or upper bound which represents the maximum population that is sustainable. The logistic function predicts the carrying capacity at 14.8 billion people, while our estimated carrying capacity was 12 billion, because based on the previously mentioned various sources there was an incredibly wide range in the debate for this number, but the most common numbers were between 10 and 15 billion, so the estimated capacity is between the two. Based on the estimated carrying capacity as well as the exponential equation, the predicted year in which Earth may reach its carrying capacity is 2098 or in 81 years from the present. While this may seem a considerable distance in the future, it is necessary to understand that within the last century the population has grown by 6 billion people and if this trend were to continue along with it being at an exponential rate, it is not impossible for the human population to reach the carrying capacity relatively soon. This would pose a great deal of issues, and as there are already countries facing overpopulation while others face decreasing populations; the world is already attempting to create solutions to both of these problems.
Population Control and Cultural Conflicts
To combat population, whether it be growth or decay, countries have implemented different policies to address current population problems. The following are a list of population situations in various countries around the world.
In addition to these countries policies that contribute to the population growth, religion also plays part into the population growth as some religion discourage abortion due to its negative effects on often the consequences that will be experienced in either an afterlife or a later life. They perceive abortion as terminating a life for viewing the infant as a human being although it has yet been born. The limiting chance of abortion greatly impacts rate of population growth in that it clearly limits the chance for balancing the world’s population.
Interesting Cases
NIgeria: Nigeria is set to overtake the United States as the third most populous country by 2050. This is due to high fertility rates and the cultural value of having a large family. While Nigeria has been described as an economic powerhouse but many fear that a large increase in the population could cripple the nation’s poor infrastructure
Romania: After Ceausescu gained power in 1965, he made abortion illegal with the plan to rapidly strengthen Romania by boosting its population saying, “The fetus is the property of the entire society. Anyone who avoids having children is a deserter who abandons the laws of national continuity.” Within 1 year, birth rate had doubled. However, these children would test lower in school, be less successful workers, and were more likely to become criminals because they were living in worse conditions due to the fact that in many cases the parents of these children were not successful. Ironically, these children became the backbone of protestors that brought down the Communist government in 1989.
Russia: The population of Russia is set to decrease from its current 143 million to 111 million in 2050 due to falling birth rates and a relatively high death rate of 15/1000 which is much higher than the world average of 9. This is due to alcoholism and smoking, which lead to health problems in the lungs and heart, and in 2014, 25% of the deaths of men under 55 were related to the consumption of vodka. The death rate is most striking in the male population since the proportion of men to women in the entire population is 0.86 and the proportion of men to women in the over 65 age group is just 0.46. Additionally, abortion is very common as a means of birth control: 2003 ~13 terminations for 10 live births; 2004 ~1.6 million had abortions while 1.5 gave birth. Another factor causing the population to decline is low immigration rates with Vladimir Putin stating that this was due to low income, lack of normal housing, and doubts towards medical services and quality of education. Another instance of Russia having problems with its population was after World War II due to the enormous amounts of losses on the eastern front, the Russian population only began to recover after 1950 despite the war ending in 1945.
Our Solutions
The world population as a whole is increasing exponentially. This leads to future conflict, limiting resources such as food and finite sources. Also, as the population grows, people will have limited space for living, impacting our environment as we are forced to take down the forests that provide us oxygen. To avoid these problems as much as possible, we came up with some solutions of our own.
One of the solutions is implementing the one child policy, like China has done for decades, to other countries that are highly populated like the U.S and India. With this policy, China was able to prevent about 100 millions births throughout decades. Although it is 1% of the population of today’s population, it is only looking at one country out of hundreds. With the addition of other countries enforcing this law, the world’s population will drastically decrease.
Another solution is legalizing abortion. Abortion is one of the most controversial topics across the globe. Abortion is illegal in numerous countries, including Brazil, Mexico, and Ireland. Abortion is opposed by people who think it terminates human life. But this should also be seen as an act that can negatively affect another person’s life. Abortion is an escape opportunity for women who get pregnant through rape. If abortion is not accessible, women have to live with an unwanted child and the child has to live in an unhealthy environment. This is detrimental to both the parent and the child. Abortion is a an escape route to all this. Most importantly, abortion grants women the right over their body. They should be allowed to decide what happens to their own body, not have others dictate what they should or should not do.
Sources
Population sources:
https://www.thoughtco.com/current-world-population-1435270
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth/
http://www.ecology.com/population-estimates-year-2050/
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2017/06/world-population-projected-to-reach-9-8-billion-in-2050-and-11-2-billion-in-2100-says-un/
https://www.populationpyramid.net/world/2020/
Carrying Capacity sources:
http://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/
Pie chart of current population
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/35/World_population_percentage.png/800px-World_population_percentage.png
Population Growth:
http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-20-countries-with-the-highest-population-growth.html
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2016&locations=BY&start=1975&year_high_desc=false
Overpopulation sources:
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2017/06/world-population-projected-to-reach-9-8-billion-in-2050-and-11-2-billion-in-2100-says-un
http://www.everythingconnects.org/overpopulation-solutions.html
Conflict with abortion
https://www.spuc.org.uk/abortion/religion
https://www.womenonweb.org/en/page/619/abortion-laws-worldwide
Russia:
https://www.thoughtco.com/population-decline-in-russia-1435266
http://www.populstat.info/Europe/russiac.htm
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-25961063
India:
http://www.jagranjosh.com/general-knowledge/population-policies-of-india-1448689756-1
http://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/does-india-need-a-population-control-law-experts-say-no/story-o1AqTgGmDTzMZMfCR8rPJP.html
Romania:
Levitt, Steven D., and Stephen J. Dubner. Freakonomics. Harper Collins Publishers, 2006.
Both equations and graphs were based on world populations by decade from 1900 until 2010 and then 2016 as well, however the logistic function has added predicted values for the years 2020, 30, 40 and 50 based on the established trend. The exponential function and graph enable the prediction of the year in which the world will reach the estimated carrying capacity; and the logistic function aiding in the prediction for the world's carrying capacity based on previous decades. The estimated carrying capacity is based on comparing various sources and as well as looking at the logistic function's k-value or upper bound which represents the maximum population that is sustainable. The logistic function predicts the carrying capacity at 14.8 billion people, while our estimated carrying capacity was 12 billion, because based on the previously mentioned various sources there was an incredibly wide range in the debate for this number, but the most common numbers were between 10 and 15 billion, so the estimated capacity is between the two. Based on the estimated carrying capacity as well as the exponential equation, the predicted year in which Earth may reach its carrying capacity is 2098 or in 81 years from the present. While this may seem a considerable distance in the future, it is necessary to understand that within the last century the population has grown by 6 billion people and if this trend were to continue along with it being at an exponential rate, it is not impossible for the human population to reach the carrying capacity relatively soon. This would pose a great deal of issues, and as there are already countries facing overpopulation while others face decreasing populations; the world is already attempting to create solutions to both of these problems.
Population Control and Cultural Conflicts
To combat population, whether it be growth or decay, countries have implemented different policies to address current population problems. The following are a list of population situations in various countries around the world.
- Policies for increasing Population growth
- Denmark has implemented televised commercials with the slogan “Do it for Denmark” in order to encourage population growth in the nation
- Sweden has yet to formally implement a national policy, however unless one is put in place within the next few years, the country will face a population decrease, because the current 1.9 births per woman and immigration rate are not enough to continue the population increase.
- Denmark has implemented televised commercials with the slogan “Do it for Denmark” in order to encourage population growth in the nation
- Policies for slowing Population Growth
- China had a “one child” policy to curb its population however it is disputed on its effectiveness since part of the population decline could have been due to economic decline.
- Since 1955, India has implemented 9 separate 5 year plans in order to slow down or decrease the rate of population growth. These plans generally included sterilization of male and female citizens, though in recent years the government has fallen largely on sterilization campaigns of women as the main source of national birth control.
- China had a “one child” policy to curb its population however it is disputed on its effectiveness since part of the population decline could have been due to economic decline.
In addition to these countries policies that contribute to the population growth, religion also plays part into the population growth as some religion discourage abortion due to its negative effects on often the consequences that will be experienced in either an afterlife or a later life. They perceive abortion as terminating a life for viewing the infant as a human being although it has yet been born. The limiting chance of abortion greatly impacts rate of population growth in that it clearly limits the chance for balancing the world’s population.
Interesting Cases
NIgeria: Nigeria is set to overtake the United States as the third most populous country by 2050. This is due to high fertility rates and the cultural value of having a large family. While Nigeria has been described as an economic powerhouse but many fear that a large increase in the population could cripple the nation’s poor infrastructure
Romania: After Ceausescu gained power in 1965, he made abortion illegal with the plan to rapidly strengthen Romania by boosting its population saying, “The fetus is the property of the entire society. Anyone who avoids having children is a deserter who abandons the laws of national continuity.” Within 1 year, birth rate had doubled. However, these children would test lower in school, be less successful workers, and were more likely to become criminals because they were living in worse conditions due to the fact that in many cases the parents of these children were not successful. Ironically, these children became the backbone of protestors that brought down the Communist government in 1989.
Russia: The population of Russia is set to decrease from its current 143 million to 111 million in 2050 due to falling birth rates and a relatively high death rate of 15/1000 which is much higher than the world average of 9. This is due to alcoholism and smoking, which lead to health problems in the lungs and heart, and in 2014, 25% of the deaths of men under 55 were related to the consumption of vodka. The death rate is most striking in the male population since the proportion of men to women in the entire population is 0.86 and the proportion of men to women in the over 65 age group is just 0.46. Additionally, abortion is very common as a means of birth control: 2003 ~13 terminations for 10 live births; 2004 ~1.6 million had abortions while 1.5 gave birth. Another factor causing the population to decline is low immigration rates with Vladimir Putin stating that this was due to low income, lack of normal housing, and doubts towards medical services and quality of education. Another instance of Russia having problems with its population was after World War II due to the enormous amounts of losses on the eastern front, the Russian population only began to recover after 1950 despite the war ending in 1945.
Our Solutions
The world population as a whole is increasing exponentially. This leads to future conflict, limiting resources such as food and finite sources. Also, as the population grows, people will have limited space for living, impacting our environment as we are forced to take down the forests that provide us oxygen. To avoid these problems as much as possible, we came up with some solutions of our own.
One of the solutions is implementing the one child policy, like China has done for decades, to other countries that are highly populated like the U.S and India. With this policy, China was able to prevent about 100 millions births throughout decades. Although it is 1% of the population of today’s population, it is only looking at one country out of hundreds. With the addition of other countries enforcing this law, the world’s population will drastically decrease.
Another solution is legalizing abortion. Abortion is one of the most controversial topics across the globe. Abortion is illegal in numerous countries, including Brazil, Mexico, and Ireland. Abortion is opposed by people who think it terminates human life. But this should also be seen as an act that can negatively affect another person’s life. Abortion is an escape opportunity for women who get pregnant through rape. If abortion is not accessible, women have to live with an unwanted child and the child has to live in an unhealthy environment. This is detrimental to both the parent and the child. Abortion is a an escape route to all this. Most importantly, abortion grants women the right over their body. They should be allowed to decide what happens to their own body, not have others dictate what they should or should not do.
Sources
Population sources:
https://www.thoughtco.com/current-world-population-1435270
https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth/
http://www.ecology.com/population-estimates-year-2050/
https://www.census.gov/population/international/data/worldpop/table_history.php
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2017/06/world-population-projected-to-reach-9-8-billion-in-2050-and-11-2-billion-in-2100-says-un/
https://www.populationpyramid.net/world/2020/
Carrying Capacity sources:
http://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/
Pie chart of current population
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/35/World_population_percentage.png/800px-World_population_percentage.png
Population Growth:
http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-20-countries-with-the-highest-population-growth.html
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?end=2016&locations=BY&start=1975&year_high_desc=false
Overpopulation sources:
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2017/06/world-population-projected-to-reach-9-8-billion-in-2050-and-11-2-billion-in-2100-says-un
http://www.everythingconnects.org/overpopulation-solutions.html
Conflict with abortion
https://www.spuc.org.uk/abortion/religion
https://www.womenonweb.org/en/page/619/abortion-laws-worldwide
Russia:
https://www.thoughtco.com/population-decline-in-russia-1435266
http://www.populstat.info/Europe/russiac.htm
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-25961063
India:
http://www.jagranjosh.com/general-knowledge/population-policies-of-india-1448689756-1
http://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/does-india-need-a-population-control-law-experts-say-no/story-o1AqTgGmDTzMZMfCR8rPJP.html
Romania:
Levitt, Steven D., and Stephen J. Dubner. Freakonomics. Harper Collins Publishers, 2006.