Our Research
Based on our model for population growth, the population of earth will exceed the earth's carrying capacity in 2062. This is disturbingly soon—most likely in our lifetimes. How did the population get to this point? What effects might we see from this rapid population growth? And how can work to decrease population growth, so as to avoid these negative effects? We did some further research on these questions, and found many important causes, including low health care spending, and consequences, including high carbon dioxide emissions, of and solutions to overpopulation and population growth.
Throughout our research we analyzed the past policies and data from six countries, China, Japan, India, the United States, Spain, and Romania. We chose the U.S., Romania, and Spain because they are the countries which we are working with on this project. The other three countries we chose because they exhibit three important patterns of population growth: China currently has the largest population in the world, but has begun to slow its growth; India has a rapidly growing population, and has experienced many problems due to overpopulation; Japan is one of the most developed countries, and has seen a decrease in population recently, a trend that many hypothesize other nations will see as they develop. Through the lens of these six countries, we have analyzed the patterns of population growth in many different cases, showing how population growth has different effects in different countries, and how looking at population growth in a variety of countries can help us develop the best solutions to the pressing problem of overpopulation.
Throughout our research we analyzed the past policies and data from six countries, China, Japan, India, the United States, Spain, and Romania. We chose the U.S., Romania, and Spain because they are the countries which we are working with on this project. The other three countries we chose because they exhibit three important patterns of population growth: China currently has the largest population in the world, but has begun to slow its growth; India has a rapidly growing population, and has experienced many problems due to overpopulation; Japan is one of the most developed countries, and has seen a decrease in population recently, a trend that many hypothesize other nations will see as they develop. Through the lens of these six countries, we have analyzed the patterns of population growth in many different cases, showing how population growth has different effects in different countries, and how looking at population growth in a variety of countries can help us develop the best solutions to the pressing problem of overpopulation.
Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Consequences
We analyzed the correlation between Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Population and the related policies of our six countries, and found that increases in CO₂ emissions were partially a consequence of population growth, and that government legislation is effective in altering trends in CO₂ emissions. Read an in-depth description of our findings, and how they are shown in shown in our six countries, in the pdf below.
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Health Care: Causes & Solutions
Our group researched the effects of healthcare on population. We found that low per capita health spending can cause population growth, but also that increasing health care spending and reforming health care can decrease a country's population growth, making health care an important factor in both causing and solving population growth.
Graph of Health Care Expenditure and Population Growth
Click on any point on the graph to view its data values. Learn about our sources for the data used to create this graph under resources.
This graph shows the relationship between health expenditure per capita in current US dollars and average annual rate of population change as a percent for 177 countries between 2010 and 2015 (health expenditure is an average of yearly values, while population change is the percent change between the two years), with the six countries we have analyzed in detail highlighted. We used this graph to draw the conclusion that as health care spending per capita increases, population growth rate decreases. We represent this in our graph with a logistic regression (shown on the graph in orange) of y = -0.3ln(2.5(x-10.2))+3.3, where y represent population growth rate and x represent health care expenditure per capita. This regression isn't very strong though, with a R² value of only 0.14. There is a lot of variability in our results, probably because a lot of countries have many factors influencing their population growth. However, by looking at the graph, it is clear that the countries with the highest population growth have the lowest health expenditure. This is probably because spending less on on healthcare decreases access to contraceptives and the health of individuals, causing an increase in population growth. However, better health care programs allow for easier access to abortion and doctors to consult the benefits and drawbacks of having babies, and can decrease population growth (we discuss this more in depth later in "specific solutions"). The below discussion of the health care programs of three countries shows some ways in which countries can use policy to create better health care systems, which can in turn work to decrease population growth rate.
Effects of Health Care Programs
We have also examined the health care systems of three of our countries, to determine the effect past government efforts to improve health care has had on population.
United States Healthcare in the United States started with accident insurance for railroad and steamboat workers in the 1850s. By the 1900s, sickness was being covered too. The employer based healthcare system that is so common today started during World War II, when the government controlled wages, making it hard for companies to attract workers. Instead of offering higher wages, many companies began to offer healthcare plans. This, however, did not cover the unemployed and as a result, many presidents attempted to create a universal healthcare plan. All of them, however, failed to garner enough support to pass until Obama’s Affordable Care Act (colloquially Obamacare). Obamacare, unfortunately, has its own problems: It is considered the least effective health care system worldwide, with the government spending $9,403 per capita, the highest rate in the world, while having only the 22nd longest life expectancy out of 35 developed OECD nations. The World Health Organization ranks the US 37th out of 190 countries. This inefficiency can also be seen in the United States’ continued population growth, whereas other countries have slowed their population growth while spending only between 3500-6000$ per capita on healthcare annually.
Spain Healthcare in Spain, as in most European countries, is universal, and highly regarded as one of the better healthcare systems in the world. Universal Healthcare was mandated under the Spanish Constitution in 1978, and several bills have been passed since then to ensure its success. According to the World Health Organization, Spain has the 7th best healthcare in the world. Even in areas where Spain’s healthcare lacks, such as above average times for hip-replacements (compared to other OECD countries), the Spanish government is implementing new ways to improve its system. Spanish healthcare can also be seen to work in its population change variability. After the constitution required universal healthcare in 1978, Spanish population change went below 1%. Their population growth skyrockets back up in the 2000s, but the change reaches its peak in 2003, when the Government implemented the Law of Cohesion and Quality, which improved their healthcare system and helped it adapt to changing times, socially and technologically. This corresponds to the population growth hitting its peak and then going back down.
Romania Romanian healthcare is somewhat lacking; it ranks 99th according to the World Health Organization. Doctors and nurses frequently move to other countries because of more attractive wages; Romania has the lowest frequency of nurses in Europe, with a rate of 73 per 100,000. In urbanized areas, Romanian healthcare is excellent, with well equipped hospitals. However, in more rural areas, hospitals are not as well equipped and patients sometimes have to buy the hospital’s equipment. This poses a large problem for many Romanians, as Romania ranks 108th out of 196 countries in urbanization, with 54.6%, according to the UN.
Spain Healthcare in Spain, as in most European countries, is universal, and highly regarded as one of the better healthcare systems in the world. Universal Healthcare was mandated under the Spanish Constitution in 1978, and several bills have been passed since then to ensure its success. According to the World Health Organization, Spain has the 7th best healthcare in the world. Even in areas where Spain’s healthcare lacks, such as above average times for hip-replacements (compared to other OECD countries), the Spanish government is implementing new ways to improve its system. Spanish healthcare can also be seen to work in its population change variability. After the constitution required universal healthcare in 1978, Spanish population change went below 1%. Their population growth skyrockets back up in the 2000s, but the change reaches its peak in 2003, when the Government implemented the Law of Cohesion and Quality, which improved their healthcare system and helped it adapt to changing times, socially and technologically. This corresponds to the population growth hitting its peak and then going back down.
Romania Romanian healthcare is somewhat lacking; it ranks 99th according to the World Health Organization. Doctors and nurses frequently move to other countries because of more attractive wages; Romania has the lowest frequency of nurses in Europe, with a rate of 73 per 100,000. In urbanized areas, Romanian healthcare is excellent, with well equipped hospitals. However, in more rural areas, hospitals are not as well equipped and patients sometimes have to buy the hospital’s equipment. This poses a large problem for many Romanians, as Romania ranks 108th out of 196 countries in urbanization, with 54.6%, according to the UN.
Specific Solutions
So far we have seen consequences and causes of population growth (and one possible solution), but how else can we work to solve the dire problem of overpopulation? To answer this question we investigated past efforts countries have taken, and some specific places where we can focus our energies in the future to best decrease population growth.
Past Efforts
As a first step to determining solutions, we examined what countries have done in the past, and he effect these measures have had. In general, we found that past policies to limit population growth have been successful in the short-term but detrimental in the long-term. Clearly, more far-reaching solutions are necessary, but there are some important lessons which can be learned by looking at the past solutions.
Japan The 1948 Eugenics Protection Law led to a dramatic decrease in the Japanese population after the Second World War. What took place were forced sterilizations of people with intellectual or mental disabilities. This Act was passed to fix the war-shattered economy in Japan and to fix overpopulation. It was only in 1996 when the policy changed to allow only voluntary sterilizations. Between this time, over 16,500 men and women were forced to sterilization, which contributed to the rapidly declining population of Japan. At least 1 million abortions had taken place annually, leading to a greater rate of abortion than birth. Japan has a population growth of less than 1% annually with a fertility rate of 1.1 children per woman. The initial problem of overpopulation was solved, but currently, Japan is extremely underpopulated with an elderly majority.
Infromation from "Population Control in Japan," Central Intelligence Agency and "Eugenic Sterilizations in Japan and Recent Demands for Apology: A Report," Takashi Tsuchiya, Osaka City University.
China In an effort to limit overpopulation, the one-child policy in China was enacted in 1979. This led to a decline in the average annual population growth rate and also created a gender imbalance. The cultural desire for a son made many families do whatever they could to make sure that their only child was a son. Due to this, sex-selective abortions became more widespread, and China's population has more males than females. The decline in birth rates and the female population led to and is still leading to an elder population majority and a declining workforce. To address these issues, China enacted the two-child policy in 2015. Still, China is in danger of a rapidly aging population and a shortage of workers.
Information from "China's new two-child policy sparks increase in births," Eric Levenson, CNN, "The most surprising demographic crisis," The Economist, and "Shrinking China: A Demographic Crisis," Gordon Chang, World Affairs.
Infromation from "Population Control in Japan," Central Intelligence Agency and "Eugenic Sterilizations in Japan and Recent Demands for Apology: A Report," Takashi Tsuchiya, Osaka City University.
China In an effort to limit overpopulation, the one-child policy in China was enacted in 1979. This led to a decline in the average annual population growth rate and also created a gender imbalance. The cultural desire for a son made many families do whatever they could to make sure that their only child was a son. Due to this, sex-selective abortions became more widespread, and China's population has more males than females. The decline in birth rates and the female population led to and is still leading to an elder population majority and a declining workforce. To address these issues, China enacted the two-child policy in 2015. Still, China is in danger of a rapidly aging population and a shortage of workers.
Information from "China's new two-child policy sparks increase in births," Eric Levenson, CNN, "The most surprising demographic crisis," The Economist, and "Shrinking China: A Demographic Crisis," Gordon Chang, World Affairs.
Possible Future Solutions
To determine our best course of action in limiting population growth in the future, we look at two areas that have a large influence on population growth, and policies in these areas that could be effective in limiting population growth.
Contraception The worldwide population keeps rapidly growing, getting closer and closer to the predicted carrying capacity. Even now, many do not have constant access to necessary elements to sustain life, such as water and food. In order to prevent an even thinner spread of supplies, it is necessary to think about ways to safely and effectively limit population growth. Various methods can be used, and while all take time, investing in the future is unavoidable if we want to continue to prosper. Over time, ideas on contraception have adapted and at the present time, more people than ever before are open to using devices to prevent child birth. The problem, though, is that many countries, in places such as Africa, have limited access to such devices. In fact, having easy access to safe contraception could possibly help to prevent two in every five pregnancies, which are reported as unwanted, therefore significantly limiting population growth.
Education Population continues to be on the rise, and any means to limit the extreme growth must be explored. This includes increasing education, especially for women. The trend made its breakout around the 1970s, with examples of poor countries that noticed a large decrease in population growth once more education was offered to women. In fact, in Malia, it has been shown that women who generally had seven children without education, were inclined to have only four children with education. That significant drop is almost a 45% less children, a huge impact for countries that cannot support their population. In addition, along with increased education comes a better workforce and less total poverty. With education comes lower birth rates and a better off country and world.
Those with more education tend to go down a more academic route and start families later, leaning towards nuclear families most of the time, with less kids and a better established situation. As shown in the modern time drop in population growth in Spain, with more people, in particular, girls, educated, the less children they are likely to have. In addition to this, universal equality between the sexes would help to decrease the population growth. By giving women and equal opportunity, it allows them to engage in affairs such as property owning and politics, which should be granted considering women are fundamentally equal to men, but also because with these rights comes more options for women, allowing children to not be the only goal, as it is still thought of in some countries. Also, having suitable health education is pertinent to the situation because as kids become more knowledgeable, they become more thoughtful with their actions and are more likely to think before they do something that might affect the rest of their lives.
All of these solutions are effective in lowering population growth, which will help to make the quality life of each individual better. In the end, the population growth rate is determined by every individual. One can take a stand for what they believe in, and can urge others to do the same. To make life better for everyone is to make a world where everyone can prosper.
Information from "Nine Population Strategies to Stop Short of 9 Billion," Worldwatch Institute.
Education Population continues to be on the rise, and any means to limit the extreme growth must be explored. This includes increasing education, especially for women. The trend made its breakout around the 1970s, with examples of poor countries that noticed a large decrease in population growth once more education was offered to women. In fact, in Malia, it has been shown that women who generally had seven children without education, were inclined to have only four children with education. That significant drop is almost a 45% less children, a huge impact for countries that cannot support their population. In addition, along with increased education comes a better workforce and less total poverty. With education comes lower birth rates and a better off country and world.
Those with more education tend to go down a more academic route and start families later, leaning towards nuclear families most of the time, with less kids and a better established situation. As shown in the modern time drop in population growth in Spain, with more people, in particular, girls, educated, the less children they are likely to have. In addition to this, universal equality between the sexes would help to decrease the population growth. By giving women and equal opportunity, it allows them to engage in affairs such as property owning and politics, which should be granted considering women are fundamentally equal to men, but also because with these rights comes more options for women, allowing children to not be the only goal, as it is still thought of in some countries. Also, having suitable health education is pertinent to the situation because as kids become more knowledgeable, they become more thoughtful with their actions and are more likely to think before they do something that might affect the rest of their lives.
All of these solutions are effective in lowering population growth, which will help to make the quality life of each individual better. In the end, the population growth rate is determined by every individual. One can take a stand for what they believe in, and can urge others to do the same. To make life better for everyone is to make a world where everyone can prosper.
Information from "Nine Population Strategies to Stop Short of 9 Billion," Worldwatch Institute.